Excel summary for upcoming Bundesliga games.  Appears a lot of value in the shorter odds but this is largely due to the market applying a discount due to the uncertainty around how teams will perform post the break.

Poisson predictions v2.0:  xG predictions are calculated based off xG, team strength, current form.  Column H shows where there is value in the odds by comparing the Poisson prediction to the bookmaker odds (NB: just because there is value, it does not mean the team will win.  The predictions do not take account of team news).

Caveat: The spreadsheet is BETA and remains WIP.  Please use the contact page for any questions regarding the data.

Spreadsheet link: Footballxg.com – Last 2,5,10 Stats – 16 May to 18 May

Poisson Predictions