Excel summary for upcoming games.  The Poisson model has been updated and the layout of the spreadsheet updated slightly to show current odds and value % for Home, Draw, Away and Over 2.5 odds.  Any errors or suggestions for improvement, please feel free to contact me via the website or twitter.

Poisson predictions v2.0: multiple tweaks to the prediction model to enable adjustments where individual league averages do not align with a basic Poisson distribution.  xG predictions are calculated based off xG, team strength, current form.  Column I also shows where there is value in the game via comparing the Poisson prediction to the bookmaker odds (NB: just because there is value, it does not mean the team will win.  The predictions do not take account of team news).

Caveat: The spreadsheet is BETA and remains WIP.  Please use the contact page for any questions regarding the data.

Spreadsheet link: Footballxg.com – Last 2,5,10 Stats – 22 May to 24 May

Poisson Predictions