Overview of the spreadsheet
Each column in the spreadsheet is described in the ‘fields’ tab. To summarise, the spreadsheet consists of 2 key sections:
The first section shows the:
This is the predicted chances and ultimately goals expected from the game. A key caveat that this is not a correct score prediction to back – the xG is a prediction based on the historical form. If the game was played a hundred times, on average this is what we expect the chances created to be i.e. the expected goals. Obviously every game is unique and history may not turn out to be a great prediction of the future.
This shows the current bookmaker odds at the time the spreadsheet was produced in the upper row, and the ‘value’ in the row below (a value greater than zero percent suggest there is value in the odds). For the example on the right, Holstein Kiel are showing 8% value (this is calculated as the Poisson model percentage of 35% shown on the far right of the spreadsheet minus the odds percentage of 27% (=1 divided by the odds of 3.7).