Statistics

  • Poisson Predictions

Upcoming Games – 29May to 4Jun 2020

Excel summary for upcoming games.  Updated for mid-week games. [NEW] Spreadsheet Guide: after a few requests a short guide on how to use the spreadsheet is available on the blog: spreadsheet guide Poisson predictions v2.0: multiple tweaks to the prediction model to enable adjustments where individual league averages do not

2020-06-02T14:02:29+00:00May 29th, 2020|
  • Poisson Predictions

Upcoming Games – 26 to 28 May 2020

Excel summary for upcoming games. Please note: the model has not been adjusted for the impact of teams playing with no fans. [NEW] Spreadsheet Guide: after a few requests, a short guide on how to use the spreadsheet is available on the blog: spreadsheet guide Poisson predictions v2.0: multiple tweaks

2020-05-25T14:03:04+00:00May 25th, 2020|
  • Football Xg

Stats Spreadsheet Guide

Football xG Statistics Spreadsheet I’ve had a few questions on how to utilise the weekly spreadsheet. There are a thousand different possibilities but below are some key areas to think about.  First I want to cover the important area of what the spreadsheet does not cover. Areas not covered

2020-05-24T14:47:49+00:00May 24th, 2020|
  • Poisson Predictions

Upcoming Games – 22 to 24 May 2020

Excel summary for upcoming games.  The Poisson model has been updated and the layout of the spreadsheet updated slightly to show current odds and value % for Home, Draw, Away and Over 2.5 odds.  Any errors or suggestions for improvement, please feel free to contact me via the website or

2020-05-20T15:46:17+00:00May 20th, 2020|
  • Poisson Predictions

We are back!! – 16 May to 18 May 2020

Excel summary for upcoming Bundesliga games.  Appears a lot of value in the shorter odds but this is largely due to the market applying a discount due to the uncertainty around how teams will perform post the break. Poisson predictions v2.0:  xG predictions are calculated based off xG, team strength,

2020-05-15T16:42:20+00:00May 14th, 2020|
  • Poisson Predictions

Upcoming Games – 13 Mar to 15 Mar 2020

Excel summary for upcoming games. Poisson predictions v2.0: multiple tweaks to the prediction model to enable adjustments where individual league averages do not align with a basic Poisson distribution.  xG predictions are calculated based off xG, team strength, current form.  Column I also shows where there is value in the

2020-03-13T15:55:15+00:00March 13th, 2020|
  • Poisson Predictions

Upcoming Games – 6 Mar to 11 Mar 2020

Excel summary for upcoming games. Poisson predictions v2.0: multiple tweaks to the prediction model to enable adjustments where individual league averages do not align with a basic Poisson distribution.  xG predictions are calculated based off xG, team strength, current form.  Column I also shows where there is value in the

2020-03-10T15:37:34+00:00March 6th, 2020|
  • Poisson Predictions

Upcoming Games – 28 Feb to 4 Mar 2020

Updated for midweek games. Poisson predictions: new columns have been added showing the estimated odds and related percentage chances of a win.  These are calculated based off xG, team strength, current form.  Column I also shows where there is value in the game via comparing the Poisson prediction to the

2020-03-03T17:39:18+00:00February 27th, 2020|
  • Poisson Predictions

Upcoming Games – 20 to 26 Feb 2020

####NEW: Poisson predictions added to the spreadsheet.##### Poisson predictions: new columns have been added showing the estimated odds and related percentage chances of a win.  These are calculated based off xG, team strength, current form.  Column I also shows where there is value in the game via comparing the Poisson

2020-02-24T10:46:56+00:00February 20th, 2020|
  • Last5&10 Stats 25Jan

Upcoming Games – 14 to 19 Feb 2020

Spreadsheet updated.  Poisson predictions coming next week. Caveat: The spreadsheet is BETA and remains WIP.  Please use the contact page for any questions regarding the data. Spreadsheet link: Footballxg.com - Last 2,5,10 Stats - 14 to 19 Feb

2020-02-19T09:41:20+00:00February 14th, 2020|