Team A have taken 10 long shots. Team B have had 4 shots from close range 1-on-1 situations with the keeper. In pure shots terms the stats suggest that 10 shots are better than 4 (net +6) but in reality team B had a lot higher percentage chance of winning
Yes it is. Shots on target gives a better prediction than total shots. Shots on target predicts the home team winner correctly 68% of time and the away team 53%.
Expected goals predicts the correct home team result 66% of the time and away results 58% of the time. This is slightly better than shots on target on the away results and slightly worse on the home results. For the astute among you, it can be seen that shots on
Using shots on target and expected goals has a very low success rate in predicting draws. This is largely due to the low scoring nature of football, and one lucky goal quickly turns a draw into a win or defeat. For anyone who claims they can predict draws, I will
By looking at expected goals of historical matches, current form and strength of opposition and running a number of statistical scenarios, the expected net goals is calculated which is then converted into a percentage chance of winning. Once we have the percentage chance of winning, we can easily convert that
You are correct that the bookies can predict the expected outcome of any match with a great amount of accuracy. The main difference is that the average punter is not always rational, so the bookies will adjust their book to where the demand is coming from rather than the