Expected goals vs shots
Is shots on target a fairer prediction?
Yes it is. Shots on target gives a better prediction than total shots. Shots on target predicts the home team winner correctly 68% of time and the away team 53%.
So how much better is expected goals?
Expected goals predicts the correct home team result 66% of the time and away results 58% of the time. This is slightly better than shots on target on the away results and slightly worse on the home results. For the astute among you, it can be seen that shots on
Do shots and expected goals predict draws?
Using shots on target and expected goals has a very low success rate in predicting draws. This is largely due to the low scoring nature of football, and one lucky goal quickly turns a draw into a win or defeat. For anyone who claims they can predict draws, I will