xG Predictions Trading

The football markets are very efficient. This means the chance of a team actually winning is often very closely related to the odds. By betting pre-match it is difficult to make healthy profits in the long run. Most sports traders will tell you the best way to win money consistently is to watch the games and to get in and out the market when a goal looks likely to be scored.

There are 2 great resources to help with your trading:

  1. Please see the blog section of the website which includes an excel summary of all upcoming matches (it includes the predicted xG, % chances for each result outcome based on an adjusted Poission model, games where there appears value in the odds, and historical statistic averages across 2,5, and 10 games).   This is an invaluable tool to help make better decisions and is all provided for free.
  2. Below are 6 strategies to use for trading the football markets where goals are expected (I’ll emphasis these are games to trades and should not be placed as outright bets).  Further guidance and examples are given below. The list of games will be updated twice a week and again is all provided for free .

xG Predictions Trading Strategy

1) The above shows the games where we expect to trade.
2) Watch the games (and/or use sofascore.com) and when the game we expect to have a goal starts to show a period of sustained pressure, we enter the market (how to enter the market varies by strategy).  If there is no sustained pressure (i.e. doesn’t look like a goal is coming) we don’t open the trade.  Maintaining your bank is key, so only open a trade when a goal looks like it is coming and only ever bet a small percentage of your betting bank.
3) Once the trade is opened, there are multiple ways to play it:

Simple Method

  • Let the trade run.  If it wins it wins, if it loses it loses.

Simplish Method

  • A goal is scored in our favour: odds should drop and then we either:
    • (1) close the trade if the sustained pressure drops,
    • (2) keep the trade open if a second goal looks likely (as soon as a second goal does not look likely, close the trade).
  • No goals:
    • if the sustained pressure drops, close the trade for a loss (if before half time (excluding strategy B), the loss should not be too big especially if it’s fairly short priced).  To limit losses, exiting prior to 60 minutes is recommended.
  • For strategy A only; other team scores first against the run-of play: I’ll emphasize this should be against the run-of play, because if the other team started to dominate then we should have closed the trade.
    • If our team continues to pressure, leave the trade open and only close when they are in front.
    • If the game dynamics have changed (i.e. our team does not look like they will come back into it), then close the trade for a loss (the earlier this is in the match, the smaller the loss will be).  The max loss will be 1pt.

Advanced Method

  • See how the game progresses and close out the position if the sustained pressure drops.  If the pressure comes back, then reopen the trade (small losses will occur so reopen the trade for the initial stake less any losses).
  • If a goal goes in our favour, there is potential to keep open the position if we expect the team to continue pushing for a second (see simplish method).  The odds will continue to drop during this period, further increasing the profit.  Alternatively, partially close out the position or put all the profits on the team we expect to win for a no loss situation.
  • For strategy A, if the other teams scores first against the run of play, and our team is showing sustained pressure then potentially open/reopen the trade (this will depend on two factors: (i) our team: how good the winning stats are after conceding the first goal, (ii) opposition team: how good their winning stats are after scoring the first goal).  If we open a new position at this stage, the odds will be significantly higher but this will be reflected in the lower strike rate.

Strategy A1 – Back Home Team (min odds 1.45)

Strategy A1

In this strategy we expect the home team to win. 

  • If the odds are above 1.45 we enter the trade pre-match (back the Home team).  If there is sustained pressure (see example above with strong green bars) we stay in the trade and the odds should actually drop (contradicting time decay).  If the home team is not dominating the trade, we exit the trade for minimal loss.  We then keep an eye on the game and look for opportunity to enter again when the home team is starting to dominate. 
  • If the odds are below 1.45, wait for an opportunity later in the game before entering the trade. 

Strategy A2 – Back Away Team (min odds 1.7)

Strategy A2

This is the same as strategy A1, except we expect the away team to win. 

  • If the odds are above 1.7 we enter the trade pre-match (back the Away team).  If there is sustained pressure (see example above with strong green bars) we stay in the trade and the odds should actually drop (contradicting time decay).  If the away team is not dominating the trade, we exit the trade for minimal loss.  We then keep an eye on the game and look for opportunity to enter again when the away team is starting to dominate.   As you may have noticed in the example above, even though the away team dominated they ended up losing.  Always be aware that not every trade will be a winner and be prepared to handle losing runs.
  • If the odds are below 1.7, wait for an opportunity later in the game before entering the trade. 

Strategy B – 1st Half Goal (max loss 1pt)

Strategy B

This strategy is where we expect a goal in the first half from either team.  Per the example above, we’re expecting to see lots of strong green or blue periods of pressure.  One team dominating (e.g. graphs in A1 and A2 are also good)

We need 3 criteria to enter the trade: (i) The games is still 0-0, (ii) the “Lay 1st Half Correct Score” or “under 0.5 goals” odds are less than 3.0, (iii) there are chances being created (either dominating home (per A1), away (perA2), or mixed high bars (per the above).  NB: the max loss is 1pt (i.e. if lay at 3.0, hedge out at 1.5 if no goal.  If lay at 2.0, the trade can run until Half time).

Strategy C – 2nd Half Goal (max loss 1pt)

Strategy C Lay CS

This strategy is where we expect a goal in the second half from either team.  Per the example above, we’re expecting to see lots of strong green or blue periods of pressure.  One team dominating (e.g. graphs in A1 and A2 are also good)

We need 3 criteria to enter the trade: (i) There has been no goals in the second half, (ii) the ‘Correct Score Lay‘ odds have gone below 4, (iii) there are chances being created (either dominating home (per A1), away (per A2), or mixed high bars (per the above).  NB: more liquidity may be present in laying the current unders (e.g. if the HT score is 1-1, lay the Under 2.5 market).  Also, the max loss we’re aiming for is 1pt (i.e. if lay at 4.0, take the loss at 2.0. If lay at 3.0, hedge out at 1.5 if no goal.  If lay at 2.0, the trade can run until Full-time).

Strategy D – Back Over 2.5 Goals (min odds 1.8)

Strategy D O25

This strategy is where we expect goals in the game.  Per the example above, we’re expecting to see lots of strong green or blue periods of pressure.  One team dominating (e.g. graphs in A1 and A2 are also good)

We need 2 criteria to enter the trade: (i) The ‘Over 2.5‘ odds are above 1.8, (iii) there are chances being created (see above example and other strategy examples).  NB: a drip entry strategy is an option for this trade, along with exiting and entering the market multiple times as goals are scored and/or pressure drops.

Strategy E – Back Both Teams To Score (min odds 1.8)

Strategy E BTTS

This strategy is where we expect both teams to score (BTTS).  Per the example above, we’re expecting to see lots of strong green or blue periods of pressure. 

We need 3 criteria to enter the trade: (i) The ‘BTTS‘ odds are above 1.8, (iii) there are chances being created (see above example), (iii) if a goal has been scored, the team that hasn’t scored should be creating chances.

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