Excel summary for upcoming games. Please note: the model has not been adjusted for the impact of teams playing with no fans.

[NEW] Spreadsheet Guide: after a few requests, a short guide on how to use the spreadsheet is available on the blog: spreadsheet guide

Poisson predictions v2.0: multiple tweaks to the prediction model to enable adjustments where individual league averages do not align with a basic Poisson distribution.  xG predictions are calculated based off xG, team strength, current form.  Columns G:J shows where there is value in the game via comparing the Poisson prediction to the bookmaker odds (NB: just because there is value, it does not mean the team will win.  The predictions do not take account of team news).

Caveat: The spreadsheet is BETA and remains WIP.  Please use the contact page for any questions regarding the data.

Spreadsheet link: Footballxg.com – Last 2,5,10 Stats – 26 May to 28 May

Poisson Predictions