Data Update Schedule:
- Friday and Tuesdays (c.4pm GMT).
News:
- 13Dec24: Opening odds gaps aim to be resolved this weekend and will be fully available for Tuesday’s update.
- New versions of xG Free, xG Core and xG Pro available.
- Old data and models will continue to be produced in parallel for a period of time to allow a smooth transition.
League Coverage:
- ‘xG Free’ is limited to EPL, La Liga and Bundesliga (no subscription required – click on the xG Free box below).
- ‘xG Core’ contains 30+ leagues and all the historical data (subscription required).
- ‘xG Pro’ contains 50+ leagues, more models, more odds, and more stats (subscription required).
*Links to the most recent files only. All historical data available to subscribers. More details on subscription options are below and here.
A) xG Free and xG Core Stats Spreadsheet
xG FREE: >>>> Excel download link: xgFree (Old Layout) (limited to 3 leagues (EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga))
xG FREE: >>>> Excel download link: xgFree (New Layout) (limited to 3 leagues (EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga))
xG CORE: >>>> xG Core Members Area (members only – includes 30 leagues – subscription options)
xG PRO: >>>> xG Pro Members Area (members only – includes 50+ leagues, more odds, more statistics – subscription options)
Key stats included:
- Poisson model (based on Expected Goals and team strength) to help identify value in the match and Overs odds.
- Expected goal averages across 3, 5 and 10 games, season to date, plus last 3 game averages regardless of whether the game was played home or away
- Actual goal averages split by 1st and 2nd half.
- Stats showing the team who scored or conceded first plus many more data points.
Guides:
- Spreadsheet guide is available on the blog: spreadsheet guide.
- Detailed field glossary can be found here: glossary
- Overview videos can be found here: videos.
B) PROP Model
This was created after a rival website was selling something very similar for around £300 for half a season. More details can be found below:
>>>> Page link: Power Rating and Odds Profitability (PROP) Model
>>>> Members Access: Power Rating and Odds Profitability (PROP) Model
>>>> Free Access: Limited to English Premier League Only
Stats include:
- Team power ratings based on historical goals (NB: this is not based on xG).
- Power ratings then converted to odds to look for potential value in games.
- Profitability by teams and leagues when odds fall within ranges of the current Home and Away Odds Prices.
- Data updated twice a week including provisional odds for the upcoming games (odds can then be manually overridden as needed).
- Beginner Poisson model also included.
- xG Blend model predictions for relevant leagues included within the spreadsheet.
Compatible Excel Versions
Excel: Spreadsheets compatible with Excel 2010 or later.
