Power Rating and Odds Profitability (PROP) Model

This is a new model that was launched based on a rival selling an equivalent spreadsheet for around £300 for half a season.

A beginners guide to creating your own model can be found in the following blog post.  If you want a ready-made version with all the bells and whistles (updated twice weekly and auto-generates fixtures) then please read on:

Key highlights of the PROP model:

  • Team power ratings based on historical goals.
  • Power ratings are then converted to odds via a Poisson Model to look for potential value in games.
  • The spreadsheet shows profitability by teams and leagues when odds fall within defined ranges of the current Home and Away Odds Prices (odds based off best bookmaker prices with a min overround of 102%).
  • Data updated twice a week including provisional odds for the upcoming games (odds can then be manually overridden as needed).
  • Fixtures are automatically populated into the spreadsheet (no need to manually add each game).
  • Beginner Poisson model also included.
  • 15 Initial Leagues included:
    • Spanish Primera Division
    • English Premier League
    • English League Championship
    • Italy Serie A
    • Italy Serie B
    • Portuguese Liga
    • Brasileiro Serie A
    • Dutch Eredivisie
    • French Ligue 1
    • French Ligue 2
    • German Bundesliga
    • German 2. Bundesliga
    • Mexican Primera Division
    • Major League Soccer
    • Chinese Super League
    • Argentina Primera Division
  • Additional leagues can be added for anyone who makes a Medium or greater donation – see below (please message via the contact form or twitter first to ensure we have access to the underlying data).

Ongoing development:

  • The model is free to use until 23rd January 2020.
  • The spreadsheet will continue to be enhanced based on user requests i.e. add new features and leagues based on user demand (feel free to contact me via Twitter or the contact form on the website).
  • The spreadsheet will be updated for new results and upcoming fixtures twice a week (Mondays and Fridays around 4pm) for the rest of the season.

Trial the PROP Model:

Steps:

(1) Click the link below which will open the sheet in the browser as ‘read-only’.

(2) Click the File tab in the top left corner of excel and then navigate to ‘File>Save As>Download a copy’. 

(3) Once downloaded, click ‘enable editing’ and ‘enable content/allow macros’ if warning messages appear.

(4) You will then be able to change the filters and auto-generate the fixtures.

Download Link: Prop Model (size 10MB – xlsm file)Last update 18th Jan 20

Continual access:

As previously stated, the model is free to use until 23rd January.  If you want access after that date then please provide a “What You Can Afford” donation below which will provide you with continued access to the spreadsheet (which is updated twice weekly for results and upcoming fixtures) until mid-August 2021.

Payment Link For Those Who Want Continued Access:

Please note all donations will go towards the cost of running the website.  All donations provide the same level of access.   Any questions, please message via Twitter or the contact form on the website.

Donation Types

[Once payment is received, we’ll aim to grant full access as soon as possible (with a maximum of 24 hours from receiving your donation).  If you would like to use a different email to the one provided by PayPal (the one linked to your PayPal account) then please contact us via the contact page].

How to use the model:

  1. Look for games where the model is showing value in the odds (columns F to I) – look for a minimum of 5% value.
  2. Look at how profitable the home and away teams or overs odds have been historically when the odds fall within defined percentage ranges of the current odds (Columns O-Q) – look for green boxes.
  3. Do the same as point 2 but from a league wide basis.
  4. Based on the above 3 criteria, shortlist games for further investigation (look at team news, recent form, and other indicator which would make the game a non-bet i.e. always look for reasons not to place a bet.

Detailed guidance coming soon.