Power Rating and Odds Profitability (PROP) Model

The PROP model highlights:

  • Matches where the betting odds appear to provide value
  • Historical team profitability when odds fall within defined ranges of the current odds.

Rival websites sell equivalent models for £300 for only 6 months of access.

A beginners guide to creating your own model can be found in the following blog post.  If you want a ready-made version with all the bells and whistles (updated twice weekly and auto-generates fixtures) then please read on:

Key highlights of the PROP model:

  • Team power ratings based on historical goals (see the relative attack and defence strength of each team along with a prediction of how many goals each team are likely to score)
  • Power ratings are then converted to odds via a Poisson Model to look for potential value in games.
  • The spreadsheet shows profitability by teams and leagues when odds fall within defined ranges of the current Home and Away Odds Prices (odds based off best bookmaker prices with a min overround of 102%).
  • Data updated twice a week including provisional odds for the upcoming games (odds can then be manually overridden as needed).
  • Fixtures are automatically populated into the spreadsheet (no need to manually add each game).
  • Beginner Poisson model also included.
  • NEW: xG Based Model added to the PROP Model for comparison against the historical goals model output.
  • 20 Leagues included:
    • Spanish (Primera, Segunda)
    • English (Premier League, Championship, NEW: League 1)
    • Italy (Serie A, Serie B)
    • Portugal (Portuguese Liga)
    • Brazil (Brasileiro Serie A)
    • Argentina (Primera Division)
    • Netherlands (Dutch Eredivisie, Dutch Eerste)
    • France (Ligue 1, Ligue 2)
    • Germany (Bundesliga, Bundesliga 2)
    • Turkey (Super Lig)
    • Mexico (Mexican Primera Division)
    • USA (Major League Soccer)
    • China (Chinese Super League)
    • Scotland (Premiership)

Ongoing updates:

  • The spreadsheet is updated for new results and upcoming fixtures twice a week (Mondays and Fridays around 4pm) and can be downloaded from a dedicated members area.

Trial the PROP Model:

Steps:

(1) Click the link below which will open the sheet in the browser as ‘read-only’.

(2) Click the File tab in the top left corner of excel and then navigate to ‘File>Save As>Download a copy’. 

(3) Once downloaded, click ‘enable editing’ and ‘enable content/allow macros’ if warning messages appear.

(4) You will then be able to change the filters and auto-generate the fixtures.

Download Link: Prop Model (size 1MB – xlsm file)Example model with limited data

12 months of full access for only £49

Full access includes the following:

  • Full access to all the leagues within the PROP model for 12 months.
  • Twice weekly updates for results and upcoming fixtures (these can be downloaded from a dedicated members area)
  • Historical PROP model data from the previous 3 seasons also included (historical data updated twice a season)

Payment link via PayPal:

Please note all payments will go towards the cost of running the website.  The PayPal subscription will start a recurring annual subscription that can be cancelled at any time.  Any questions, please message via Twitter or the contact form on the website.

12 Months Access

[Once payment is received, we’ll aim to grant full access as soon as possible (with a maximum of 24 hours from receiving your donation).  If you would like to use a different email to the one provided by PayPal (the one linked to your PayPal account) then please contact us via the contact page].

How to use the model:

  1. Look for games where the model is showing value in the odds (columns F to I) – look for a minimum of 5% value.
  2. Look at how profitable the home and away teams or overs odds have been historically when the odds fall within defined percentage ranges of the current odds (Columns O-Q) – look for green boxes.
  3. Do the same as point 2 but from a league wide basis.
  4. Based on the above 3 criteria, shortlist games for further investigation (look at team news, recent form, and other indicators which would make the game a non-bet i.e. always look for reasons not to place a bet).