Power Rating and Odds Profitability (PROP) Model
The PROP model highlights:
- Matches where the betting odds appear to provide value
- Historical team profitability when odds fall within defined ranges of the current odds.
Rival websites sell equivalent models for £300 for only 6 months of access.
A beginners guide to creating your own model can be found in the following blog post. If you want a ready-made version with all the bells and whistles (updated twice weekly and auto-generates fixtures) then please read on:
Key highlights of the PROP model:
- Team power ratings based on historical goals (see the relative attack and defence strength of each team along with a prediction of how many goals each team are likely to score)
- Power ratings are then converted to odds via a Poisson Model to look for potential value in games.
- The spreadsheet shows profitability by teams and leagues when odds fall within defined ranges of the current Home and Away Odds Prices (odds based off best bookmaker prices with a min overround of 102%).
- Data updated twice a week including provisional odds for the upcoming games (odds can then be manually overridden as needed).
- Fixtures are automatically populated into the spreadsheet (no need to manually add each game).
- Beginner Poisson model also included.
- xG Based Model added to the PROP Model for comparison against the historical goals model output.
- 20 Leagues included:
- Spanish (Primera, Segunda)
- English (Premier League, Championship, League 1, League 2)
- Italy (Serie A, Serie B)
- Portugal (Portuguese Liga)
- Brazil (Brasileiro Serie A)
- Argentina (Primera Division)
- Netherlands (Dutch Eredivisie)
- France (Ligue 1, Ligue 2)
- Germany (Bundesliga, Bundesliga 2)
- Turkey (Super Lig)
- Mexico (Mexican Primera Division)
- USA (Major League Soccer)
- Scotland (Premiership)
Ongoing updates:
- The spreadsheet is updated for new results and upcoming fixtures twice a week (Mondays and Fridays around 4pm) and can be downloaded from a dedicated members area.
Trial the PROP Model:
Steps:
(1) Click the link below which will open the sheet in the browser as ‘read-only’.
(2) Click the File tab in the top left corner of excel and then navigate to ‘File>Save As>Download a copy’.
(3) Once downloaded, click ‘enable editing’ and ‘enable content/allow macros’ if warning messages appear.
(4) You will then be able to change the filters and auto-generate the fixtures.
Download Link: Prop Model (size 1MB – xlsm file) – Example model with limited data
12 months of full access for only £84 (=£7 per month)
Full access includes the following:
- Full access to all the leagues within the PROP model for 12 months.
- Twice weekly updates for results and upcoming fixtures (these can be downloaded from a dedicated members area)
- Historical PROP model data from the previous 3 seasons also included (historical data updated twice a season)
Payment link via PayPal:
The ‘PayPal Subscribe’ option will start a recurring annual subscription that can be cancelled at any time. The second button (‘Debit Credit Card’) allows payment without creating a PayPal account. Any questions, please message via Twitter or the contact form on the website.
[Once payment is received, we’ll aim to grant full access as soon as possible (with a maximum of 24 hours from receiving payment). If you would like to use a different email to the one provided by PayPal (the one linked to your PayPal account) then please contact us via the contact page].
How to use the model:
- Look for games where the model is showing value in the odds (columns F to I) – look for a minimum of 5% value.
- Look at how profitable the home and away teams or overs odds have been historically when the odds fall within defined percentage ranges of the current odds (Columns O-Q) – look for green boxes.
- Do the same as point 2 but from a league wide basis.
- Based on the above 3 criteria, shortlist games for further investigation (look at team news, recent form, and other indicators which would make the game a non-bet i.e. always look for reasons not to place a bet).