We’re back!

Rather than being on a break, there has been a lot of development work behind the scenes to provide more insights and stats.

Massive Caveat: The spreadsheet is BETA – I’m releasing now to enable ironing out of errors prior to the start of the major European Leagues.  Please use the contact page for any errors identified or questions regarding the data.

Changes include:

  • Stats showing  the team who scored or conceded first and then the outcome of the match and whether there were over 2.5 goals.  A great tool for making quick in-play decisions and looking for value in the odds.
  • Sats showing games where a second goal was scored within 10 minutes of the previous goal.  This is useful in deciding whether to close out a position after a goal.  The position can be opened once the odds have drifted allowing increased profits to be locked in.
  • H2H results for the past 3 seasons: while there is much debate on how relevant head-to-head stats are, they can be used as a good sense check to eliminate potentially bad trades e.g. goals may look likely but due to local rivalry, previous H2H results have been low scoring.
  • Last 2 games averages (actual and xG) regardless of whether the game was played home or away
  • The odds vs value now include the excel formulas.  This allows easy override of the odds with updated prices.

**NEW** v2 Spreadsheet link: Footballxg.com – Last 2,5,10 Stats – 19 to 21 August

Spreadsheet Guide: spreadsheet guide is available on the blog: spreadsheet guide (yet to be updated)

Poisson predictions v2.0: xG predictions are calculated based off xG, team strength, current form.  Columns G:J shows where there is value in the game via comparing the Poisson prediction to the bookmaker odds (NB: just because there is value, it does not mean the team will win.  The predictions do not take account of team news and should be used as a starting point for further analysis – see spreadsheet guide noted above).


Poisson Predictions