18Dec: Updated for upcoming weekend games. 21Dec: Mid-week games updated.
Updates will be at irregular times over the next 2 weeks due to the fixture schedule over the busy Xmas and New Year period (follow on Twitter for details of when updates are made).
Spreadsheet compatible with Excel 2010 or later (Excel 2007 users please click here).
Key stats include:
- Poisson model (based on Expected Goals and team strength) to help identify value in the match and Over 2.5 odds.
- Expected goal averages across 2, 5 and 10 games plus last 2 games averages regardless of whether the game was played home or away
- Actual goal averages split by 1st and 2nd half.
- Stats showing the team who scored or conceded first and then the outcome of the match and whether there were over 2.5 goals. A great tool for making quick in-play decisions and looking for value in the odds.
- Stats showing games where a second goal was scored within 10 minutes of the previous goal. This is useful in deciding whether to close out a position after a goal. The position can be opened once the odds have drifted allowing increased profits to be locked in.
- H2H results for the past 3 seasons: while there is much debate on how relevant head-to-head stats are, they can be used as a good sense check to eliminate potentially bad trades e.g. goals may look likely but due to local rivalry, previous H2H results have been low scoring.
Spreadsheet Guide: spreadsheet guide is available on the blog: spreadsheet guide
Poisson predictions v2.0: xG predictions are calculated based off xG, team strength, current form. A second model based on xG only is in the final columns (NB: just because there is value, it does not mean the team will win. The predictions do not take account of team news and should be used as a starting point for further analysis – see spreadsheet guide noted above).