‘xG Free’ is limited to EPL, La Liga and Bundesliga from 1Sep21. ‘xG Core’ which contains 30 leagues is available to subscribers. More details on the benefits of subscribing can be found here – subscription options.
Update Schedule (Friday and Mondays around 4pm GMT)
A) xG Free and xG Core Stats Spreadsheet
xG FREE: >>>> Excel download link: xgFree (limited to 3 leagues (EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga) from 31Aug21)
xG CORE: >>>> xG Core Members Area (members only from 31Aug21 – includes 30 leagues – subscription options)
Key stats included:
- Poisson model (based on Expected Goals and team strength) to help identify value in the match and Overs odds.
- Expected goal averages across 3, 5 and 10 games, season to date, plus last 3 game averages regardless of whether the game was played home or away
- Actual goal averages split by 1st and 2nd half.
- Stats showing the team who scored or conceded first plus many more data points.
Spreadsheet Guide: spreadsheet guide is available on the blog: spreadsheet guide.
Predicted xG (advanced xG Poisson Model): xG predictions are calculated based off xG, team strength, short and medium term form. (NB: just because there is value, it does not mean the team will win. The predictions do not take account of team news and should be used as a starting point for further analysis – see spreadsheet guide noted above).
B) PROP Model
This was created after a rival website was selling something very similar for around £300 for half a season. More details can be found below:
>>>> Page link: Power Rating and Odds Profitability (PROP) Model
- Team power ratings based on historical goals (NB: this is not based on xG).
- Power ratings then converted to odds to look for potential value in games.
- Profitability by teams and leagues when odds fall within ranges of the current Home and Away Odds Prices.
- Data updated twice a week including provisional odds for the upcoming games (odds can then be manually overridden as needed).
- Beginner Poisson model also included.
- **New** xG Blend model predictions for relevant leagues included within the spreadsheet.
Compatible Excel Versions
Excel: Spreadsheets compatible with Excel 2010 or later (Excel 2007 users please click here).