Data Update Schedule:
- Friday and Mondays around 4pm GMT
- NOTE: Updates may occur at slightly different times over the holiday period. Any changes to the update schedule will be posted on Twitter.
- Pinnacle Closing odds added to historical data sheets to allow monitoring of CLV (closing-line-value).
- ‘xG Free’ is limited to EPL, La Liga and Bundesliga (no subscription required – click on the xG Free box below).
- ‘xG Core’ contains 30 leagues and all the historical data and is available to subscription members only. More details on the benefits of subscribing can be found here – subscription options.
*Links to the most recent files only. All historical data available to subscribers. More details on subscription options below and here.
A) xG Free and xG Core Stats Spreadsheet
xG FREE: >>>> Excel download link: xgFree (limited to 3 leagues (EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga))
xG CORE: >>>> xG Core Members Area (members only – includes 30 leagues – subscription options)
Key stats included:
- Poisson model (based on Expected Goals and team strength) to help identify value in the match and Overs odds.
- Expected goal averages across 3, 5 and 10 games, season to date, plus last 3 game averages regardless of whether the game was played home or away
- Actual goal averages split by 1st and 2nd half.
- Stats showing the team who scored or conceded first plus many more data points.
Spreadsheet Guide: spreadsheet guide is available on the blog: spreadsheet guide. Overview videos can be found here: videos.
Predicted xG (advanced xG Poisson Model): xG predictions are calculated based off xG, team strength, short and medium term form. (NB: just because there is value, it does not mean the team will win. The predictions do not take account of team news and should be used as a starting point for further analysis – see spreadsheet guide noted above).
B) PROP Model
This was created after a rival website was selling something very similar for around £300 for half a season. More details can be found below:
>>>> Page link: Power Rating and Odds Profitability (PROP) Model
>>>> Members Access: Power Rating and Odds Profitability (PROP) Model
- Team power ratings based on historical goals (NB: this is not based on xG).
- Power ratings then converted to odds to look for potential value in games.
- Profitability by teams and leagues when odds fall within ranges of the current Home and Away Odds Prices.
- Data updated twice a week including provisional odds for the upcoming games (odds can then be manually overridden as needed).
- Beginner Poisson model also included.
- **New** xG Blend model predictions for relevant leagues included within the spreadsheet.
Compatible Excel Versions
Excel: Spreadsheets compatible with Excel 2010 or later (Excel 2007 users please click here).