Data Update Schedule:
- Friday and Tuesdays (c.4pm GMT) – changed from Mondays to Tuesdays from 4Oct22. A lot of the weekend xG numbers are not received until late Monday. A Tuesday update will allow the stats to reflect more of the actuals for the mid-week predictions.
- Oct22: A full re-run has been performed of all historical xG Data (Pro and Core). Key changes explained:
- xG from penalty shootouts removed as was skewing numbers in Europe and Knock-Out games.
- Understatement of xG numbers in Aug 2020 and Aug 2022 have been corrected.
- Odds now uses Pinnacle as the primary when available (then B365 if not available). Previously, the higher of the two was used.
- Small adjustments to xG Predict model to take account of when there is a significant divergence between xG and Goals (mainly impacting overs/unders predictions).
- Pro now includes League Positions and League Ranks (Ranks based on 2 different ELO models which takes account of goals and xG performance).
- A summary of all the fields and the differences between xG Core and xG Pro can be found here for those wanting to upgrade.
- ‘xG Free’ is limited to EPL, La Liga and Bundesliga (no subscription required – click on the xG Free box below).
- ‘xG Core’ contains 30 leagues and all the historical data and is available to subscription members only. More details on the benefits of subscribing can be found here – subscription options.
*Links to the most recent files only. All historical data available to subscribers. More details on subscription options below and here.
A) xG Free and xG Core Stats Spreadsheet
xG FREE: >>>> Excel download link: xgFree (limited to 3 leagues (EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga))
xG CORE: >>>> xG Core Members Area (members only – includes 30 leagues – subscription options)
Key stats included:
- Poisson model (based on Expected Goals and team strength) to help identify value in the match and Overs odds.
- Expected goal averages across 3, 5 and 10 games, season to date, plus last 3 game averages regardless of whether the game was played home or away
- Actual goal averages split by 1st and 2nd half.
- Stats showing the team who scored or conceded first plus many more data points.
Spreadsheet Guide: spreadsheet guide is available on the blog: spreadsheet guide. Overview videos can be found here: videos.
Predicted xG (advanced xG Poisson Model): xG predictions are calculated based off xG, team strength, short and medium term form. (NB: just because there is value, it does not mean the team will win. The predictions do not take account of team news and should be used as a starting point for further analysis – see spreadsheet guide noted above).
B) PROP Model
This was created after a rival website was selling something very similar for around £300 for half a season. More details can be found below:
>>>> Page link: Power Rating and Odds Profitability (PROP) Model
>>>> Members Access: Power Rating and Odds Profitability (PROP) Model
>>>> Free Access: Limited to English Premier League Only
- Team power ratings based on historical goals (NB: this is not based on xG).
- Power ratings then converted to odds to look for potential value in games.
- Profitability by teams and leagues when odds fall within ranges of the current Home and Away Odds Prices.
- Data updated twice a week including provisional odds for the upcoming games (odds can then be manually overridden as needed).
- Beginner Poisson model also included.
- **New** xG Blend model predictions for relevant leagues included within the spreadsheet.
Compatible Excel Versions
Excel: Spreadsheets compatible with Excel 2010 or later (Excel 2007 users please click here).