‘xG Free’ is limited to EPL, La Liga and Bundesliga from 1Sep21.   ‘xG Core’ contains 30 leagues and is available to subscribers.  More details on the benefits of subscribing can be found here – subscription options.  

Update Schedule (Friday and Mondays around 4pm GMT)

xG Free

xG Core

PROP

A) xG Free and xG Core Stats Spreadsheet

xG FREE: >>>> Excel download link:  xgFree (limited to 3 leagues (EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga) from 31Aug21) 

xG CORE: >>>> xG Core Members Area (members only from 31Aug21 – includes 30 leagues – subscription options)

Key stats included:

  • Poisson model (based on Expected Goals and team strength) to help identify value in the match and Overs odds.
  • Expected goal averages across 3, 5 and 10 games, season to date, plus last 3 game averages regardless of whether the game was played home or away
  • Actual goal averages split by 1st and 2nd half.
  • Stats showing the team who scored or conceded first plus many more data points.

Spreadsheet Guide: spreadsheet guide is available on the blog: spreadsheet guide.

Predicted xG (advanced xG Poisson Model): xG predictions are calculated based off xG, team strength, short and medium term form.  (NB: just because there is value, it does not mean the team will win.  The predictions do not take account of team news and should be used as a starting point for further analysis – see spreadsheet guide noted above).

B) PROP Model

This was created after a rival website was selling something very similar for around £300 for half a season.  More details can be found below:

>>>> Page link:  Power Rating and Odds Profitability (PROP) Model 

>>>> Members Access: Power Rating and Odds Profitability (PROP) Model 

Stats include:

  • Team power ratings based on historical goals (NB: this is not based on xG).
  • Power ratings then converted to odds to look for potential value in games.
  • Profitability by teams and leagues when odds fall within ranges of the current Home and Away Odds Prices.
  • Data updated twice a week including provisional odds for the upcoming games (odds can then be manually overridden as needed).
  • Beginner Poisson model also included.
  • **New**  xG Blend model predictions for relevant leagues included within the spreadsheet.

Compatible Excel Versions

Excel: Spreadsheets compatible with Excel 2010 or later (Excel 2007 users please click here).