Football xG Updates and Blog

Updated for upcoming games.  Remember there can be strange results in the early rounds so tread carefully! Key stats include: Poisson model (based on Expected Goals and team strength) to help identify value in the match and Over 2.5 odds. Expected goal averages across 2, 5 and 10 games plus

Updated for upcoming games.  Remember there can be strange results in the early rounds so tread carefully! [21Sep: Updated for midweek fixtures, 23Sep: MLS Games added] Key stats include: Poisson model (based on Expected Goals and team strength) to help identify value in the match and Over 2.5 odds. Expected

We're back.  Updated for upcoming games.  Remember there can be strange results in the early rounds so tread carefully! [14Sep: Updated for midweek fixtures and a missing MLS game] Key stats include: Poisson model (based on Expected Goals and team strength) to help identify value in the match and Over

New spreadsheet for the weekend games (updated for midweek games, 9/9: updated missing odds) [Updates occur Friday and Monday around 3pm) Key stats include: Poisson model (based on Expected Goals and team strength) to help identify value in the match and Over 2.5 odds. Expected goal averages across 2, 5

New spreadsheet for the midweek games (Error in MLS games due to MLS Back games incorrectly feeding - corrected in v2 updated below). Massive Caveat: The spreadsheet is BETA - I'm releasing now to enable ironing out of errors prior to the start of the major European Leagues.  Please use

New spreadsheet for the weekends games. Massive Caveat: The spreadsheet is BETA - I'm releasing now to enable ironing out of errors prior to the start of the major European Leagues.  Please use the contact page for any errors identified or questions regarding the data. Changes include: Stats showing  the