Football xG Updates and Blog

Updated for upcoming games. [NOTE: The order of the 'results after score/concede columns have changed.  Home Score/Away Concede are now directly under each other to be able to more quickly see the best course of action post a goal] Key stats include: Poisson model (based on Expected Goals and team

Updated for upcoming games.  There have been unusual results in the early rounds so tread carefully! Key stats include: Poisson model (based on Expected Goals and team strength) to help identify value in the match and Over 2.5 odds. Expected goal averages across 2, 5 and 10 games plus last

Updated for upcoming games.  Remember there can be strange results in the early rounds so tread carefully! Key stats include: Poisson model (based on Expected Goals and team strength) to help identify value in the match and Over 2.5 odds. Expected goal averages across 2, 5 and 10 games plus

Updated for upcoming games.  Remember there can be strange results in the early rounds so tread carefully! [21Sep: Updated for midweek fixtures, 23Sep: MLS Games added] Key stats include: Poisson model (based on Expected Goals and team strength) to help identify value in the match and Over 2.5 odds. Expected

We're back.  Updated for upcoming games.  Remember there can be strange results in the early rounds so tread carefully! [14Sep: Updated for midweek fixtures and a missing MLS game] Key stats include: Poisson model (based on Expected Goals and team strength) to help identify value in the match and Over

New spreadsheet for the weekend games (updated for midweek games, 9/9: updated missing odds) [Updates occur Friday and Monday around 3pm) Key stats include: Poisson model (based on Expected Goals and team strength) to help identify value in the match and Over 2.5 odds. Expected goal averages across 2, 5