12th Jan: Updated for Spurs Fulham and missing odds. Also trialing a new way of accessing the file which will allow easier updates and viewing straight from the browser – please contact with any problems.
8Jan: Updated for upcoming fixtures, 9thJan: correction for Model2 Poisson displaying incorrect data, 11th Jan: Updated for midweek fixtures (NB: odds for a number of 15th Jan fixtures are not currently available. Predictions for some games not available where not enough historical data is available).
A) xG Stats Spreadsheet
Excel file download link: Footballxg.com – Last 2,5,10 Stats – 9 to 15 Jan 2021.xlsx
Spreadsheet compatible with Excel 2010 or later (Excel 2007 users please click here).
*NEW*: JPEG version of spreadsheet available for easier viewing on mobile phones (NB: download the file after clicking on the link. File size is 11MB): JPEG Screenshot link (11MB)
Key stats include:
- Poisson model (based on Expected Goals and team strength) to help identify value in the match and Over 2.5 odds.
- Expected goal averages across 2, 5 and 10 games plus last 2 games averages regardless of whether the game was played home or away
- Actual goal averages split by 1st and 2nd half.
- Stats showing the team who scored or conceded first and then the outcome of the match and whether there were over 2.5 goals. A great tool for making quick in-play decisions and looking for value in the odds.
- Stats showing games where a second goal was scored within 10 minutes of the previous goal. This is useful in deciding whether to close out a position after a goal. The position can be opened once the odds have drifted allowing increased profits to be locked in.
- H2H results for the past 3 seasons: while there is much debate on how relevant head-to-head stats are, they can be used as a good sense check to eliminate potentially bad trades e.g. goals may look likely but due to local rivalry, previous H2H results have been low scoring.
Spreadsheet Guide: spreadsheet guide is available on the blog: spreadsheet guide
Poisson predictions v2.0: xG predictions are calculated based off xG, team strength, current form. A second model based on xG only is in the final columns (NB: just because there is value, it does not mean the team will win. The predictions do not take account of team news and should be used as a starting point for further analysis – see spreadsheet guide noted above).
B) PROP Model
This was created after a rival website was selling something very similar for around £300. More details can be found below:
Page link: Power Rating and Odds Profitability (PROP) Model
- Team power ratings based on historical goals (NB: this is not based on xG).
- Power ratings then converted to odds to look for potential value in games.
- Profitability by teams and leagues when odds fall within ranges of the current Home and Away Odds Prices.
- Data updated twice a week including provisional odds for the upcoming games (odds can then be manually overridden as needed).
- Beginner Poisson model also included.