19thFeb: Updated for weekend fixtures. 22ndFeb: Update for midweek games.
A) xG Stats Spreadsheet
Spreadsheet compatible with Excel 2010 or later (Excel 2007 users please click here).
Key stats include:
- Poisson model (based on Expected Goals and team strength) to help identify value in the match and Over 2.5 odds.
- Expected goal averages across 2, 5 and 10 games plus last 2 games averages regardless of whether the game was played home or away
- Actual goal averages split by 1st and 2nd half.
- Stats showing the team who scored or conceded first and then the outcome of the match and whether there were over 2.5 goals. A great tool for making quick in-play decisions and looking for value in the odds.
- Stats showing games where a second goal was scored within 10 minutes of the previous goal. This is useful in deciding whether to close out a position after a goal. The position can be opened once the odds have drifted allowing increased profits to be locked in.
- H2H results for the past 3 seasons: while there is much debate on how relevant head-to-head stats are, they can be used as a good sense check to eliminate potentially bad trades e.g. goals may look likely but due to local rivalry, previous H2H results have been low scoring.
Spreadsheet Guide: spreadsheet guide is available on the blog: spreadsheet guide
Poisson predictions v2.0: xG predictions are calculated based off xG, team strength, current form. A second model based on xG only is in the final columns (NB: just because there is value, it does not mean the team will win. The predictions do not take account of team news and should be used as a starting point for further analysis – see spreadsheet guide noted above).
B) PROP Model
This was created after a rival website was selling something very similar for around £300. More details can be found below:
- Team power ratings based on historical goals (NB: this is not based on xG).
- Power ratings then converted to odds to look for potential value in games.
- Profitability by teams and leagues when odds fall within ranges of the current Home and Away Odds Prices.
- Data updated twice a week including provisional odds for the upcoming games (odds can then be manually overridden as needed).
- Beginner Poisson model also included.