Development work continues in the background with some exciting changes coming for next season (including more leagues).
Update Schedule (Friday and Mondays): next update 9Jul around 4pm.
A) xG Stats Spreadsheet
Excel file download link: xgFree
The above link includes xG Predict – all versions and outputs will be available soon. An explanation of the changes to the models is below and I’ll emphasis the xG Blend Predict and Poisson model output shows superior backtesting profits when compared to the original M1 model:
|Blend: xG Predict||New xG Prediction included in xG Free and Core (a blend of 3 different models below – M2,X2,X10)|
|M1: xG Predict||Original xG Model – based on actual goals, expected goals, team strength and a number of additional inputs.|
|M2: xG Predict||Included on original xG blog spreadsheets (far right columns) – Model based on expected goals, team strength and a number of additional inputs.|
|X10: xG Predict||New model based on expected goals over the medium term.|
|X2: xG Predict||New model based on expected goals over the short term.|
Key stats include:
- Poisson model (based on Expected Goals and team strength) to help identify value in the match and Over 2.5 odds.
- Expected goal averages across 3, 5 and 10 games plus last 3 games averages regardless of whether the game was played home or away
- Actual goal averages split by 1st and 2nd half.
- Stats showing the team who scored or conceded first.
Spreadsheet Guide: spreadsheet guide is available on the blog: spreadsheet guide. Spreadsheet compatible with Excel 2010 or later (Excel 2007 users please click here).
Predicted xG (advanced xG Poisson Model): xG predictions are calculated based off xG, team strength, short and medium term form. (NB: just because there is value, it does not mean the team will win. The predictions do not take account of team news and should be used as a starting point for further analysis – see spreadsheet guide noted above).
B) PROP Model
This was created after a rival website was selling something very similar for around £300. More details can be found below:
Page link: Power Rating and Odds Profitability (PROP) Model
- Team power ratings based on historical goals (NB: this is not based on xG).
- Power ratings then converted to odds to look for potential value in games.
- Profitability by teams and leagues when odds fall within ranges of the current Home and Away Odds Prices.
- Data updated twice a week including provisional odds for the upcoming games (odds can then be manually overridden as needed).
- Beginner Poisson model also included.
- **New** xG Blend model predictions for relevant leagues included within the spreadsheet.