Updates

9Apr: Updated for weekend fixtures.  12th Apr: Updated for midweek games.

A) xG Stats Spreadsheet

Excel file download link:  Footballxg.com – Last 2,5,10 Stats.xlsx

Spreadsheet compatible with Excel 2010 or later (Excel 2007 users please click here).

Key stats include:

  • Poisson model (based on Expected Goals and team strength) to help identify value in the match and Over 2.5 odds.
  • Expected goal averages across 2, 5 and 10 games plus last 2 games averages regardless of whether the game was played home or away
  • Actual goal averages split by 1st and 2nd half.
  • Stats showing  the team who scored or conceded first and then the outcome of the match and whether there were over 2.5 goals.  A great tool for making quick in-play decisions and looking for value in the odds.
  • Stats showing games where a second goal was scored within 10 minutes of the previous goal.  This is useful in deciding whether to close out a position after a goal.  The position can be opened once the odds have drifted allowing increased profits to be locked in.
  • H2H results for the past 3 seasons: while there is much debate on how relevant head-to-head stats are, they can be used as a good sense check to eliminate potentially bad trades e.g. goals may look likely but due to local rivalry, previous H2H results have been low scoring.

Spreadsheet Guide: spreadsheet guide is available on the blog: spreadsheet guide

Poisson predictions v2.0: xG predictions are calculated based off xG, team strength, current form.  A second model based on xG only is in the final columns (NB: just because there is value, it does not mean the team will win.  The predictions do not take account of team news and should be used as a starting point for further analysis – see spreadsheet guide noted above).

B) PROP Model

This was created after a rival website was selling something very similar for around £300.  More details can be found below:

Page link:  Power Rating and Odds Profitability (PROP) Model 

Stats include:

  • Team power ratings based on historical goals (NB: this is not based on xG).
  • Power ratings then converted to odds to look for potential value in games.
  • Profitability by teams and leagues when odds fall within ranges of the current Home and Away Odds Prices.
  • Data updated twice a week including provisional odds for the upcoming games (odds can then be manually overridden as needed).
  • Beginner Poisson model also included.